Cloudy&Shiny Index

Part of Monarch Castle Technologies
MODEL: CSI-ENGINE-V3 FEED: LIVE SYSTEM ONLINE
SPY 67
QQQ 54
^GDAXI 58
^FCHI 56
^N225 52
000001.SS 45
^HSI 71
XU100.IS 43
^VIX 92
TLT 63
GLD 29
DX-Y.NYB 53

Sentiment and Forecast

Cloudy&Shiny Index
58.3
CLOUDY | Neutral
Sentiment Gauge
0 FEAR50 NEUTRAL100 GREED
48H Composite Trend
IndexSmoothed
24H Forecast Path
Base: 58.3 +0.1 (CLOUDY)
Bear 56.5 | Bull 60.2 Spread 3.7
Regime Transition 24H
STORMY
0.0%
CLOUDY
100.0%
SHINY
0.0%
Most Likely: CLOUDY
Forecast Driver Waterfall
Stock
+0.05
Crypto
+0.04
VIX-Inv
-0.02
Total Delta +0.07
Stock Sentiment
Crypto Sentiment
VIX Inverse

Methodology and Weights

Score = (Stock x 0.40) + (Crypto x 0.30) + ((100 - VIX norm) x 0.30)
Stock sentiment and Crypto fear/greed are normalized to 0-100.
VIX is normalized to 0-100 over rolling history, then inverted so higher means risk-on.
Regime bands: 0-20 STORMY, 21-80 CLOUDY, 81-100 SHINY.
Stock Component
40.0%
Crypto Component
30.0%
Inverse VIX
30.0%
US Basket
32.7%
Asia Basket
26.9%
Europe Basket
10.4%

Performance and Forecast Evidence

1D Delta
-0.3
Day-over-day mood shift
7D Delta
+2.8
Weekly regime movement
Intraday Vol
0.38
24h standard deviation
Component Spread
59.7
Stock/Crypto/VIX divergence
Momentum 6H
-0.3
Short-horizon acceleration
Backtest MAE 1H
0.13
Rolling out-of-sample error
Backtest MAE 6H
0.52
Mid-horizon forecast error
Backtest MAE 24H
1.05
Daily horizon error
Direction Hit 24H
54.1%
N=220 rolling windows
Forecast Confidence Dashboard
Coverage 24H
80.0%
Bias 24H
-0.53
Error Drift
+0.98

Asset Performance vs 60-Day MA

S&P 500
SPY
ABOVE MA
67.3
RSI: 68 Wt: 16.4%
Nasdaq 100
QQQ
ABOVE MA
53.8
RSI: 56 Wt: 16.4%
DAX
^GDAXI
ABOVE MA
58.2
RSI: 78 Wt: 5.4%
CAC 40
^FCHI
ABOVE MA
56.3
RSI: 72 Wt: 3.7%
Nikkei 225
^N225
ABOVE MA
52.2
RSI: 53 Wt: 5.1%
Shanghai Comp
000001.SS
BELOW MA
45.0
RSI: 61 Wt: 21.3%
Hang Seng
^HSI
ABOVE MA
70.8
RSI: 65 Wt: 0.4%
BIST 100
XU100.IS
BELOW MA
43.0
RSI: 39 Wt: 1.4%
VIX Fear Index
^VIX
BELOW MA
92.2
RSI: 45 Wt: 7.5%
US 20Y Treasury
TLT
BELOW MA
62.9
RSI: 41 Wt: 7.5%
Gold
GLD
ABOVE MA
28.8
RSI: 69 Wt: 7.5%
US Dollar Index
DX-Y.NYB
BELOW MA
52.8
RSI: 30 Wt: 7.5%
Market Breadth Snapshot
Bullish 4
Neutral 7
Bearish 1

Reliability and Signal History

Feed Reliability

Stock LIVE 100.0%
Crypto LIVE 100.0%
VIX LIVE 100.0%
Overall Score: 100.0%
Data Age: 0.0 min
Fallback Rate: 0.0% | Failure Rate: 0.0%

Signal Board

Regime
Neutral
CLOUDY
Transition Prob
S 0.0% | C 100.0% | G 0.0%
CLOUDY
Momentum 6H
Stable
-0.3
Forecast 24H
Driver Stock | S +0.1 C +0.0 V -0.0
58.3
Forecast Spread
sigma 1.00 | slope -0.04/h
3.7
Backtest 24H
RMSE 1.41 | Hit 54.1% | N 220
1.05
Intraday Vol
Calm
0.38
Component Spread
Consensus Low
59.7
Market Breadth
Bull 4 | Neutral 7 | Bear 1
+25.0

Historical Feed

Aug 11 00:00
CLOUDY
58.3
Composite mood
Aug 10 00:00
CLOUDY
58.6
Composite mood
Aug 09 00:00
CLOUDY
60.0
Composite mood
Aug 08 00:00
CLOUDY
59.7
Composite mood
Aug 07 00:00
CLOUDY
59.4
Composite mood
Aug 06 00:00
CLOUDY
56.7
Composite mood
Aug 05 00:00
CLOUDY
56.6
Composite mood

Component Snapshot

Stock Sentiment57.4
Crypto Fear and Greed29.0
Inverse VIX Score88.7
Composite - Stock Gap+0.9